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The state of the world economy, from official data only
Regenerated 18 Sep 2026, 08:42 UTC
Next 18 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC
Global regime

Expansion

Driven by: CN OECD composite leading indicator 98.1, crossed Sep 2025; CN debt service ratio, private sector 19.1 %, crossed Q1 2025; EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator 98.4, crossed Jul 2022. Offset by: US credit-to-GDP gap −11.3 pp, 21.3 pp below; US debt service ratio, private sector 13.8 %, 1.7 pp below. Last regime change 18 Sep 2026, from Slowdown.

74 /100 +74 over 3 months
ContractionSlowdownLate cycleExpansion
5
Triggered
2
Watch
2
Post-trigger
32
Normal
8
No threshold
49 of 49
Series current

Filled square, the threshold is crossed. Hollow, it is within one step and the distance is printed. Half-filled, it was crossed and has come back. A rule means the series has no threshold and is shown for context only.

Regions · ordered by GDP weight (2025)
RegionWeightScoreStatus3 mo24 monthsTop driverAs of
United States 38% 83 Green — OFR Financial Stress Index −2.2, returned 31 Mar 17 Sep
China 24% 53 Amber — OECD composite leading indicator 98.1, crossed Sep 2025 18 Sep
Eurozone 22% 79 Green — Economic Sentiment Indicator 98.4, crossed Jul 2022 16 Sep
Japan 5% 67 Green — Debt service ratio, private sector 15.5 %, crossed Q4 2025 17 Sep
United Kingdom 5% 84 Green — Monthly GDP, 3m on 3m +0.4 %, 0.4 pp above the 0.0 % trigger 16 Sep
India 5% 78 Green — Debt service ratio, private sector 12.5 %, crossed Q1 2026 Aug 2026
Cycle layer · indicator by region
A full row of filled squares is a synchronised turn. Structural · Stress · Cycle in full
IndicatorUSCNEZJPUKIN/6
OECD composite leading indicatorMonthly 101.0 98.1 100.8 100.3 101.1 101.6 1
National activity surveyMonthly +22.7 — 98.4 — +0.4% — 1
Labour triggerMonthly −0.07 — 6.4% 2.4% 4.9% — 0
Yield curve +0.82 +0.47 +1.02 +1.12 +1.61 6.78% 0
Core inflation against targetMonthly 2.4% 0.8% 2.4% — 2.6% 4.6% 0
Credit impulse and lendingMonthly — — +4.4% — — — 0
OutputQuarterly +1.5% — +0.6% — — — 0
Policy rate 4.00% — 2.50% 0.98% 3.75% — 0
Threshold events · newest first
The full record (161)
DateRegionIndicatorStatusValueThresholdSinceSource
31 Mar 2026 United States OFR Financial Stress Index US Cleared −0.3 > 0 5 months Office of Financial Research, US Treasury · Stress
30 Mar 2026 United States OFR Financial Stress Index US Triggered +0.2 > 0 5 months Office of Financial Research, US Treasury · Stress
Jan 2026 United Kingdom Unemployment rate UK Cleared 4.9 % > 12-month low + 0.5 pp 8 months Office for National Statistics · Cycle
Q1 2026 India Debt service ratio, private sector IN Triggered 12.5 % > 10-yr mean + 1 pp 8 months Bank for International Settlements · Structural
Dec 2025 United Kingdom Monthly GDP, 3m on 3m UK Cleared +0.1 % < 0 9 months Office for National Statistics · Cycle
Oct 2025 United Kingdom Monthly GDP, 3m on 3m UK Triggered −0.1 % < 0 11 months Office for National Statistics · Cycle

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